Free Stock Market Research Report by Jason Ng, the man behind The Star Trading System (one of the best option trading systems)

Oil seemed to have entered a significant correction phase right now, spurring stocks onwards. The Star Trading System seems to be still skeptical about this “rally” and continue to give us more bearish stars. Indeed, some of the bearish stars that turned up over the past few days did go lower despite the market going higher even though they did not qualify for trading. Does this mean the end of the correction and a total rebound? Not really. The Dow is still within its framework of a bear relief rally, suggesting that it can still turn south and head south significantly, so, this is definitely not the time to get optimistic yet… lets continue to follow the system.

Do I still need explain why the stock market is up today?

Yes, like I mentioned yesterday, crude oil was at a short term support level and if it breaks below that level, it would give a boost to the stock market. Indeed, oil took the biggest 6 days hit for the year and totally erased its intermediate bull trend. This is definitely a good point for an intermediate stock market rally but it will all depend on whether investors think the same way. How would we know if investors would think the same way? Through technical analysis of course! The Dow is still steeped in its intermediate bear channel even though it has rallied for so many days. Which means that this is still to be classified as a relief rally within a bearish framework… in other words, it is still not out of the mine field. We need to see investors convinction in the form of a bullish breakout through the ceiling of this bear channel on strong volume. That will tell us that investors are ready to get optimistic with the retreat in crude oil price. I would define the current ceiling at around its 30MA. Remember, even though crude oil is the biggest market driver right now, there are still many other factors that can add up to produce pessimism. In fact, the Dow is right on its 30MA resistance level right now. This is the first level that we need to see a strong breakout. If the Dow retreats tomorrow, it would suggest that investors continue to be short term pessimistic and requires more evidence and support.

Star Option Trader’s Thought For The Day : “Always Follow The System.”
 

Free Stock Market Research Report by Jason Ng, the man behind The Star Trading System (one of the best option trading systems)

The great retreat in crude oil price has resulted in a 3 days “rally” for the Dow and I even suggested that this time round it could be different. Indeed, it was really different for crude oil price as it fell for 4 straight days. In fact, crude oil has never retreated for 4 straight days in 2008! Is it still different for stocks in general? Is it still different for the Dow? It is still hard to tell for sure as the Dow is in a deep oversold position and totally due for a relief rally anyways. The only way to tell if the Dow has found a bottom is by observing if it makes a new low when it retreats again next in accordance to the Dow Theory. For now, the most possible scenario is for the Dow to go neutral within a range of about 11000 to 11600 before it really decides where it wants to go. On the technical front, the downwards channel for the Dow remains strong and intact with a ceiling at about 11750. Lending strength to the reversal story is the continued pouring in of funds from the credit market into the equities market as indicated by the rising bond yield curve (see bond yield curve). The last time such a phenomena happened back in March, the Dow went into an intermediate bull trend. So, there are now plenty of reasons to be bullish while the bearish sentiments still exist out there. The bulls and the bears are now ready for a final bout to decide who rules.

Star Option Trader’s Thought For The Day : “Every Morning Marks A Brand New Beginning”