by Jason Ng, Founder, Master ‘O’ Equity
Its been a week with a ton of ups and downs again. The markets continue to sway uneasily on its slow advance like someone on a tight rope. These are markets which made it extremely difficult for swing traders like us to catch a good swing. Where we used to hold on swings as large at 15 days early last year, this year, we are reduced to swings of about 3 to 5 days if we are lucky before a retracement happens again. However, that did not stop us from being profitable on a couple of really nice stocks like LTR, BOL and EXP. Always remember, market conditions are not homogenous. As a lifetime trader, we will go through many kinds of market conditions. Some will please us, some will break our hearts a little but all of them will feed us if we stick to our game in a disciplined and patient manner.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Stocks closed mixed once again today as rising oil prices continue to dampen sentiments in the market. Oil price has seen the light of day once again as it rises above its psychological resistance level to close near the $61 level. Oil has closed this high for the first time since December and certainly looks like it could go higher with all the excuses it needs in place… Increased tension with Iran, the upcoming driving season, lower petroleum inventory and hedge fund moving into commodities. Higher oil prices leads to higher production prices and hence higher retail prices, things that the economy definitely don’t need at this point in time. Higher oil prices may not have an immediate impact on the stock market eventhough in the long run, it certainly will.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Indices continue their expected and normal route of advance today as the Dow pulled back slightly for another day and the Nasdaq composite slowed its advance forward. It is certain normal for the Dow nowadays to pull back for up to 3 days before surging to another new high, forming yet another step in its staircase formation. In fact, it could go all the way down to its 30 days moving average tomorrow, let’s not all be surprised or be put into a panic. The Nasdaq composite slowed its advance as the Nasdaq-100 comes up against its 1850 resistance level. As I have mentioned in my post yesterday, I expected the Nasdaq-100 to find the 1850 resistance level a strong one as it is already in the deep short term overbought region. The Nasdaq-100 and the Nasdaq Composite are displaying a huge spinning top signal at the overbought region and that is usually a very bad thing. Such huge spinning top formations usually decompose into an evening star formation, which is a strong downside reversal signal. Today is again critical to the Nasdaq composite. There is no telling if it will make an advance tomorrow but chances are that it may be more inclined to downside as the Nasdaq-100 doesn’t look ready for a topside break yet.
The Star Trading System continues to sit on the fence today with very little signal. This is a sign of uncertainty.
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Well, it has been an up and down week which opened with a lot of bullish expectations but ended mixed. The Dow ended the week down 0.92% and the Nasdaq Composite ended the week up 0.72%. The week has been ramaged by an army of bad news trying to stomp down the bullishness in the market like a demonstration gone bad. Higher than expected CPI numbers, surging oil prices, uncertainty in the Iranian front, lowering oil inventory..etc… However, it seems like the bulls are still strong and have held up the Nasdaq composite so far. Next week is going to be a week of many significant economic releases. Could the numbers cause further panic and break the last of the bulls?
