Daily US Stock Market Analysis - Stocks Gained As Oil Corrects Below $60
Tuesday, March 13th, 2007by Jason Ng, Founder, Master ‘O’ Equity
The Star Trading System shows its neutral stance today with an almost equal number of morning and evening stars.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Stock markets gained as oil price corrects below the nerve pricking $60 once again. The Dow gained by 0.34% and the Nasdaq Composite gained by 0.62%. Oil price hit below $59 when OPEC announced that they will not be cutting production. This will relieve oil prices in the short term and give the stock markets a little boost but with growing demands all over the world and especially in China, not increasing production is already “cutting” production in a net effect kind of way. Until Cambodia become a major oil producing country in Asia, prices will remain bullish for oil. Yesterday’s gain has been the result of a very weak internal. Advancers led decliners by a very very lean margin of almost 1 : 1. Volume was also very weak, especially in the Nasdaq composite, indicating that many investors are now taking a back seat from this “rally” to see what will happen. For me? I am neutral on the market for now. Existing traders should hold both longs and shorts and yet-to- be-traders should stay out until the next trend becomes clear. I am actually more neutral-bearish if you read my picture carefully. 
That means that even though I am neutral now, I am very likely to switch back to bearish very soon.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Markets gained very weakly today. By weak, we mean that there is a lack of strong participation in the market and that prices moved very much within the range of the previous day. We saw that even though both the Dow and the Nasdaq composite gained yesterday, both indices actually closed within the trading range of the previous day. This definitely do not give it much bullishness. The Dow has also pulled up against its 100 days moving average resistance level. If we see a high volume break to upside above that level tomorrow, I would say the Dow is ready to regain its bullish outlook. With stochastics still a distance from being overbought, it does have the potential to make such a break. So far, this “rally” has been weak and discouraging, especially with so many market moving releases due this week. It is going to be an uncertain week ahead with very uncertain outcomes. The markets may make a break and rally from this point or it may simply end its pull up and laspe back down into its bear trend, both possibilities are 50/50. Be cautious.
